bombjack| Sheng Wenbing: Federal Reserve meeting minutes boost US dollar, gold daily line continues to be negative
On Wednesday, the dollar index rebounded to a new high of the week, approaching the 105 mark and closing up 0.Bombjack.279%, at 104.94. Us bond yields rebounded collectively, with 10-year Treasury yields rising and falling, but remained rising during the day to close at 4.428 per cent. The yield on the two-year bond, which is most sensitive to the fed's policy rate, rose even more sharply, closing at 4.88 per cent. In japan, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1% for the first time since may 2013 amid speculation that the central bank was about to adjust interest rates. The three major US stock indexes fell under intraday pressure on hawkish Fed minutes, with the Dow closing down 0.51%, the S & P 500 down 0.27% and the Nasdaq down 0.18%. Major European stock indexes closed lower, with Germany's DAX index closing down 0.25%, the UK's FTSE 100 index closing down 0.5%, and the European Stoxx 50 index closing down 0.43%.
Thursday's risk warning
☆ 16Bombjack: 00, the initial value of manufacturing PMI, service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in euro area in May.
☆ 16:30, UK May manufacturing PMI, service PMI, integrated PMI.
☆ 20:30, the number of U.S. jobless claims in the week ending May 18.
☆ 21:45, the United States in May, the initial value of global manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
☆ 22:00, the total number of new home sales in the United States in April annualized.
☆ to be decided, G7 finance ministers will meet with central bank governors to discuss global economic development until May 25.
At 3:00 the next day, Bostick, chairman of the FOMC voting committee and chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, participated in a student question and answer session in 2024.
According to the minutes of the Fed's meeting from April 30 to May 1, policymakers believe it will take longer than expected for inflation to fall back to the 2% target. While recent economic data show a downward trend in inflation, Fed policy makers say they need to wait a few more months to make sure inflation is really back on track to its 2 per cent target before considering cutting interest rates.
The minutes show that despite the support of supply chain improvementBombjackInflation in commodity prices has fallen, but officials believe the pace of improvement will be slower and may slow the progress of inflation. Some officials have even hinted that they are willing to tighten policy further if the risk of inflation justifies it. This uncertainty about the degree of policy restriction also brings some uncertainty to the market.
The dollar index rose to an one-week high on Wednesday and Treasury yields followed suit, further weighing on gold prices. The market remains hopeful that US inflation will continue to cool, but personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data to be released on May 31 will be a key test.
Against this backdrop, investors need to keep a close eye on the Fed's inflation expectations, economic data and policy trends. Although Fed officials say they need to keep interest rates at current levels for longer than previously expected, there is still uncertainty about future policy changes.
The price of gold was suppressed by the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, falling more than $40. At present, the fundamentals of gold need to continue to pay attention to PCE data and the direction of Fed policy. In the short term, from a technical point of view, pay attention to the support level 2360 of the rising trend line of the daily line, and do long gold after the stabilization signal appears.
The fed is looking for signs that inflation is on track to fall to 2% before cutting interest rates. This wait-and-see attitude challenged analysts' expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates as early as June or July.
Oil prices respond to complex inflationary signals against the backdrop of a belief that demand is weakening. Analysts point out that refinery purchases of crude oil are falling, contrary to previous expectations, which could indicate concerns about future demand.
At the same time, the Fed's wait-and-see attitude essentially pushes up inflation by curbing consumer spending. Last week's economic data showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.5 per cent in April, indicating some inflationary pressure, while the consumer price index (CPI) rose moderately by 0.3 per cent, in line with expectations, indicating that inflation is easing. The data sent mixed signals to crude oil traders and increased uncertainty about the direction of inflation.
In this case, investors need to pay attention to the impact of Fed policy trends, inflation data and developments in OPEC+ on the crude oil market. Positive developments in OPEC+ may support higher oil prices, but concerns about weak demand could put pressure on prices.
According to the latest minutes of the meeting, the Fed proposed to wait a few more months before cutting interest rates, which further depressed the price of crude oil. Today, crude oil focuses on the one-hour downward trend line pressure area, the pullback does not break the downward trend line pressure area, short-term short crude oil. At present, the crude oil market is affected by the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and inflation data, market forecasts and OPEC+ progress will become important factors in the future market trend. Investors need to pay close attention to the market dynamics, combined with fundamental and technical analysis, in the future trading, crude oil prices may be affected by multiple factors and fluctuations, investors need to be careful to deal with market risks.
The content of the article is purely the author's personal point of view, not as the basis for investment decision-making, but for reference only.Bombjack! It is a pure coincidence that there are any similarities. The risk lies in control, fire fighting is not as good as fire prevention.
[risk Tip] according to the relevant regulations on foreign exchange management, the buying and selling of foreign exchange shall be carried out at the trading venues prescribed by banks and other countries. Whoever buys and sells foreign exchange privately, buys and sells foreign exchange in disguise, buys and sells foreign exchange or illegally introduces a relatively large amount of foreign exchange shall be imposed by the foreign exchange control agency according to law; if the case constitutes a crime, he shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.
