candycrushsoda| PVC prices hit bottom and rebounded: real estate policy stimulus and inventory pressure coexist
Newsletter summary
After the price of calcium carbide rebounded slightlyCandycrushsodaThe operating rate of PVC decreased by 3%Candycrushsoda.95% is still high. Social inventory is high and difficult to fall, downstream demand is weak, and the basis is weakening. PVC futures rose under the stimulus of the policy, but the lower reaches contradicted the high price, so it is recommended to chase the rise cautiously.
Text of news flash
Supply shrinks and demand does not pick up significantly. PVC market rebounds with limited momentum.
Calcium carbide prices rebounded slightly after mid-May. On the supply side this week, the PVC operating rate decreased by 3% month-on-month due to centralized maintenance after a continuous rise.Candycrushsoda.95 percentage points to 78.55%, keeping at a high level for the same period in previous years. Taiwan's Formosa Plastics sold to the mainland in June with a price increase of 20 US dollars per ton, stimulating external enquiries. Although downstream construction is stable, it is still low compared with the same period last year, and the policy impact is not yet fully apparent.
After the Spring Festival, the social inventory digests slowly and remains high. This week, the social inventory continues to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure is greater. Although the data of the real estate market is still depressed, and the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities remains the lowest in the same period on record, the market is paying attention to the real estate stimulus policy. Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities have introduced favorable policies on the property market before the May Day holiday.CandycrushsodaThe collection, storage and digestion of stock housing and the central bank cut provident fund interest rates and other policies to further stimulate the real estate sector.
At present, the actual increase in PVC demand is limited, and it is difficult to eliminate social inventory. Under the stimulation of real estate policy, PVC futures prices have risen, but the lower reaches are resistant to high-priced raw materials, the transaction situation is not ideal, and the basis is weaker. PVC futures are strongly supported at the lower edge of the previous range, but investors need to be cautious when chasing gains and recommend long opportunities after a market correction.
The reduction of positions in PVC2409 contracts fluctuated downwards, and the basis performance was weak.
From the perspective of the futures market, the position reduction of the PVC2409 contract fluctuated downwards, with the lowest price of 6246 yuan / ton and the highest price of 6407 yuan / ton, closing at 6321 yuan / ton, above the 20-day moving average, a decline of 0.52%. The position decreased by 36028 hands to 922745 hands.
In terms of basis, the main current price of calcium carbide PVC in East China fell to 5940 yuan / ton on May 21, while the closing price of V2409 contract futures was 6321 yuan / ton, with a basis difference of-381 yuan / ton, which was 10 yuan / ton weaker than before and was on the low side.
Fundamental observation: supply contraction does not boost demand, real estate improvement will take time
In terms of fundamentals, overhauling of enterprises such as Xinjiang Zhongtai, Inner Mongolia Yili and Xinjiang Tianye has led to a month-on-month decline in PVC operating rate. Nevertheless, the operating rate is still at a high level over the same period over the years. The new production capacity in the second quarter is mainly 300000 tons / year full production in Zhenyang, Zhejiang Province and 600000 tons / year in Jintai, Shaanxi Province. the commissioning time of the two units has been delayed many times. If they can be put into production as scheduled, it will partially offset the production loss caused by spring inspection.
The situation on the demand side is not good, the year-on-year data of real estate investment and sales continue to decline, and the end of completion drops sharply compared with the same period last year. From January to April, the national real estate development investment, commercial housing sales area, sales and new housing construction area all declined, real estate development enterprise housing construction area and housing completion area also decreased, and it will take time for the real estate industry to improve.
In terms of inventory, there is more inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival holiday, and the social inventory is digested slowly after the Spring Festival. As of May 17, PVC social inventory increased by 0.15% to 599600 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 22.24% over the same period last year.
