mobilecryptoearninggames| Five rounds of coke rises have been blocked: steel mills are expected to maintain their low inventory replenishment demand, and the recovery of coking coal supply is limited
Newsletter summary
Both supply and demand increase in coke marketMobilecryptoearninggamesFive rounds of price increases are blocked, steel mills resume production rhythm and coking costs are the focus; the marginal improvement of coking coal demand, supply is affected by coal mine safety supervision, downstream replenishment demand has room to release. Risk factors include crude steel production policy and import increment of coking coal.
Text of news flash
[both supply and demand in coke market increase, short-term increase is blocked]
Recently, the coke market shows a pattern of double increase in supply and demand. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills leads to a gradual pick-up of hot metal output, supporting the rigid demand for coke. However, the demand of finished wood terminal is under pressure, which leads to the cooling of the mood of replenishment in the lower reaches in the short term. Nevertheless, if the finished material demand is expected to improve, steel mills still have a large replenishment demand under the background of low inventory, and the overall demand margin shows a strong trend.
From a supply point of view, coke production has obviously recovered under the drive of five rounds of increase. At the same time, the slowdown of rising costs helps to maintain profits of coke enterprises. Coke supply is expected to remain high, but the recent market acceptance of five rounds of increase is not high, resulting in the increase blocked.
At present, the coke market has a strong cautious wait-and-see mood, coke enterprises gradually increase production, hot metal continues to recover, and the pattern of double increase in coke supply and demand continues. Short-term finished wood terminal demand is under pressure, the market is watching carefully, the five-round rise of coke is blocked, and the disk price is facing adjustment. However, with the increase of hot metal, under the background of low inventory downstream, the current price still has support. Investors should continue to pay attention to the pace of steel mills resuming production, coking costs and changes in macro sentiment.
[the supply of coking coal market is limited and the marginal demand is improved]The coking coal market is under the pressure of short-term finished wood terminal demand on the demand side, and the inventory of coking steel enterprises has been replenished to last year's level, and the market replenishment sentiment has declined. However, with the gradual resumption of blast furnace production, the gradual increase of hot metal, the improvement of profits of coke enterprises and the high output of coke, the rigid demand for coking coal is still supported.
On the supply side, due to the approach of the peak and summer node, Shanxi has strengthened the work of stable coal production and supply to ensure that the daily output remains at a normal level on the premise of safe production. The acceleration of the resumption of coal mine production is conducive to the restoration of supply. However, under the situation of high-pressure coal mine safety supervision this year, the recovery of coking coal supply will still be limited. Mongolian coal asMobilecryptoearninggamesAn important supplement to China's coking coal supply will maintain a high import capacity.
Overall, the slow recovery of supply in the producing area and the tightening of coal mine safety supervision have affected the pace of supply recovery. The demand of short-term finished products is under pressure, the willingness to replenish the stock is restrained, and the mood of replenishing the stock is reduced. However, under the background of the gradual resumption of production of steel mills and the slow increase of hot metal, the willingness of coke enterprises to increase production still exists, and rigid demand supports the market price. Downstream replenishment demand still has room to release, and the current price still has support. Investors need to keep a close eye on coal mine safety supervision, the pace of steel mill resumption and changes in macro sentiment.
In the coke and coking coal markets, risk factors that investors need to pay attention to include crude steel production policy and excessive increase in coking coal imports (downside risk), as well as policy incentives that exceed expectations and coal mine safety regulations to limit production (upside risk).