earncryptofromgames| Shanghai-tin contract rose 6.8% monthly: the high prosperity of the integrated circuit industry drives marginal improvement in demand

Newsletter summary

Tin market rose sharply in AprilEarncryptofromgamesThe integrated circuit industry is booming. January-March data show that the demand margin is improving and inventory is stable. It is suggested that more Shanghai-tin contracts should be traded and pay attention to the progress of Burmese mine resumption.

Text of news flash

Tin prices have risen strongly, with Shanghai-tin contracts soaring by 6% in April.Earncryptofromgames.8%]

The tin market has performed well this month, with Shanghai tin contract prices rising significantly by 6.8 per cent between April 1 and 26. On April 26th, the spot price of Mysteel integrated tin rushed to 260000 yuan per ton, and the recent market volatility led to a chaotic basis.

On the supply side, tin supply increased sharply from January to February of 2024 compared with the same period last year, reaching 6.4% year-on-year increase in March. Although imports of tin mines declined year-on-year in February, they rose slightly from January to February and increased 5.4 per cent in March.

The demand side shows a positive trend. The integrated circuit industry continues to prosper, and the demand for 3C products continues to pick up. The automobile industry has gradually recovered, the output of household appliances has increased steadily, the output of PVC industry has increased compared with the same period last year, and the overall demand margin has improved. The data from January to March are strong, and April data are expected to remain high.

In terms of costs and profits, although the supply at the mine end is tight, tin prices have risen sharply, and processing fees in the main producing areas of Yunnan and Guangxi have rebounded from their low levels, and this trend is expected to continue for some time.

In terms of inventory level, LME inventory rose month-on-month, but it is still in the destocking stage. SHFE inventory continued to increase month-on-month, at a high level compared with the same period last year. Social inventory increased slightly, and the overall inventory remained at a relatively stable high level.

Strategically, tin prices are expected to remain strong in view of the uncertainty at the mine end and the improvement in demand expectations. Although there may be a volatile adjustment in the market, the logic of being bullish is still clear. The monthly support level is set at 235000 yuan / ton. Investors are advised to adopt a long strategy in Shanghai-tin contracts, and the pressure level is considered to reduce their holdings. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the progress of Burmese mine resumption and the data verification of consumption recovery.