abugarciarevo3mgx| PVC Weekly: Upstream load is at a new low, and de-warehousing may accelerate in the next few weeks (4.19)
Source: all plastic federations
fourAbugarciarevo3mgx. 19
Core data and viewpoints
Supply and demand
Upstream PVC starts:
As of the week of April 18, the upstream start-up load continued to decline and hit a new low of 71.34%, month-on-month-3.43%, and year-on-year-0.14%. Upstream operating rate is expected to pick up slightly next week (4.19-4.24), but it is still relatively low.
Production plan:
In 2023, Xinfa 40, Huayi 40 and Wanhua 40 were put into production, Julong 40W negative, Zhonggu 300000 restarted in early November 2023, with a total of nearly 1.9 million put into production or restart. The production capacity of 2.2 million tons may be put into production in the whole year from 2024 to 2025, of which 900000 of Zhenyang 30W, Jintai (planned 60W) 300000 and Bay 20W in 2024 are relatively certain. Zhenyang has tested the qualified products in the first quarter, and Jintai caustic soda has been put into production at the beginning of the second quarter.
The plastic Federation investigates the demand in the lower reaches of South China:
During the week of 4.13-4.19, with the end of the traditional holiday in Guangxi, the starting load in the lower reaches of South China rebounded obviously. In the current period, the load in the lower reaches of South China is 49.48%, with a month-on-month ratio of + 3.95%, which is-6.17% compared with the same period last year. At present, the construction of film material and foaming board in South China is better than that in the same period in previous years, while the profile is slightly better than in the same period in previous years.
Warehousing logistics
This week, social inventory decreased slightly, but the range was not obvious, such as: upstream slight decline, southwest decline, East China decline, South China increase. Southwest China is mainly due to the recent relatively cheap car shipments, part of the railway operation did not enter the warehouse, resulting in a decline in inventory in some areas. South China shipping is not as good as last year mainly because the supply of goods from Wanhua and Huayi complements the South China market, and the upstream of the northwest reduces shipments to the consumption areas of South China (the following East and South China data are taken from Zhuochuang).
Inventory (South China + East China + Southwest) is estimated to be 579300 tons, month-on-month-3900 tons, year-on-year 81400 tons.
Inventory (South China + East China + Southwest + upstream) is estimated to be 981600 tons, month-on-month-2900 tons, year-on-year 33900 tons.
Import and export
Import semi-closed, profit-1061Abugarciarevo3mgxThe export theory is half open, and the profit is-52cm color 12 (calculated according to the upstream ex-factory price 5300, the export revenue is compared with the export cost northwest ex-factory price + freight to Tianjin port). The bidding price of calcium carbide method is mostly in FOB700~710, while the calcium carbide method of Tianjin Port estimates FOB705, with a month-on-month ratio of-5 and export income of 5658. After deducting export miscellaneous fees and freight charges, it has an advantage to push 5298 of exports out of Inner Mongolia factory. At present, the ex-factory price of Inner Mongolia is estimated to be around 5300-5350, and the export is temporarily closed. However, considering the overall production profit, some upstream will choose exports to reduce the pressure on domestic sales.
The volume of new export orders in the week on April 19th was more than 20, 000 tons, with a medium-to-high level (the average for nearly one year was 17000, and the average for nearly two years was 19000), but it was mainly caused by the long-term association order of the ethylene process, which may not be sustainable.
International sea freight rates continue to rise. Tianjin Port to Ho Chi Minh $710 million 750, Coastal Defence $550 million 600, Tianjin Port to Nawashwar / Mendra, India $1400 million 1420. The freight rate of FOB705+ exported from China to India by calcium carbide method is 51: 756, which is superior to the mainstream international quotation CFR800 (Formosa Plastics offer in May-30 CFR India 800).
India implemented the BIS policy on September 1st, taking into account the future ship, plus the uncertainty of the June-September monsoon season and the BIS policy after September, it is expected that local imports will increase their purchases around May. India, March 26, 2024: the authorities want to verify whether China has dumping problems during the period from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023.
Valuation
Chlor-alkali valuation:
Medium, liquid alkali stable sheet alkali rebound, power coal rebound, blue carbon stable medium rise, calcium carbide stable, calcium carbide marginal device profit:-120
Purchased calcium carbide PVC cost (sharing 0.47 electrolysis cost): Shandong 6479; Inner Mongolia 5381; purchased calcium carbide PVC profit: Shandong-979; Inner Mongolia-31
Calcium carbide profit:-99: 120 (calcium carbide down, blue carbon stable)
Comprehensive profit of Shandong marginal plant: (0.75alkali + 1PVC)-120,0.88liquid chlorine + alkali): 434 (liquid chlorine)
Comprehensive profit of marginal plant in North China (purchased calcium carbide):-123 (PVC+0.75 caustic soda, but the actual industrial chain is long, generally there is no loss as a whole)
Comprehensive profit of Northwest marginal equipment (non-Inner Mongolia calcium carbide + purchased electricity): 78 (PVC+0.75), caustic soda fell
(23.11.17 week adjustment profit formula, comprehensive profit from 0.7 caustic soda to 0.75 caustic soda)
Northwest Ningxia PVC folding surface safety margin: 5300 (static estimation based on current caustic soda and calcium carbide)
Referenc
Price
Reference price:
The origin of Mongolian coal 5500 gas 595 minutes 10; Orchid charcoal: 845 minutes 20
Shandong caustic soda 32% 758 (100 2369),-10 (100% 31.5)
Inner Mongolia tablet alkaloid: 2850 and 100
Liquid chlorine Shandong: 427 people's Republic of China
Calcium carbide Shandong: 3180L0; calcium carbide Inner Mongolia: 2600Limei 50
Main
Logic
The dollar index strengthened, crude oil pulled back, the inspection was supported but not strongly driven, and at the beginning of the week, affected by the small composition of the compulsory cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of September, 9-1 weakened.
Summary
1. The inventory contradiction is still prominent. The absolute value of inventory is high, the speed of going to the warehouse is slow, and the inflection point of social inventory does not appear obviously.
2. Spring inspection starts to bring lower support. Preliminary maintenance plans have been announced one after another. At present, the maintenance efforts are relatively strong from April to May. Weekly overhaul reached its peak this week and upstream construction hit a new low, which is expected to be reflected in the decline in inventories from late April to mid-May.
3. Exit at the bottom. India pulse delivery, April 19, the week of new export orders are on the high side, domestic PVC exports are still expected to maintain a good level to play a role in regulating domestic supply. India implemented the BIS policy on September 1st, and India has no obvious new capacity in 2024. It is expected that India's PVC will be more dependent on the outside world in the next two years. Taking into account the future ship, coupled with the uncertainty of the monsoon season from June to September and the BIS policy after September, India is expected to increase its purchases in advance around May, and domestic exports are expected to maintain a good level in the first half of the year. Indian authorities want to check whether China has dumping problems during the period from October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023. However, from the perspective of the global supply pattern, it has little impact on domestic exports, but may lead to a sharp increase in export orders in a certain period of time.
4. Calcium carbide based on PVC overhaul season and its own high start, prices are still weak, but coal rebounded. Coal chemical industry is supported by cost and sentiment, blue carbon rebounds, calcium carbide continues to have limited downward space.
At present, the inflection point of social inventory does not appear obviously, and the downstream construction is weaker than the same period last year, but the decline in the previous period gives room for inspection and repair in April, the marginal improvement of supply and demand, and the space for further exploration is relatively limited, following the overall trend. 5850-5950 shock.
Highlight
Attention
1. The uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East increases, pay attention to the trend of crude oil; 2. Spring inspection; 3. Commodity sentiment
