mummysgold| Photovoltaic rebounds, and patient capital is needed in the future

Abstract

1. Today, the new energy plate rebounded strongly, the photovoltaic plate led the rise, and the bottom of the related product photovoltaic 50ETF (159864) rebounded by more than 6%. On the news side, the photovoltaic industry association held a symposium on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, which encouraged the merger and reorganization of the photovoltaic industry and unblocked the market exit mechanism. The stock market responded well and rebounded sharply. However, in the long run, it will take time to clear the domestic capacity of the photovoltaic industry, overseas investigations and lawsuits may also affect the share to further expand, the need to lengthen the expected cycle of investment returns.

2. In the context of the current weak economic recovery, the new "National Nine articles" strengthens the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, which is expected to boost the market style towards high dividend sectors in the short term. Superimposed at the beginning of the year, the relevant departments proposed to include market value management in the assessment of the heads of central enterprises, the medium-and long-term allocation value of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is outstanding, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a comparative advantage. Interested partners can follow the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760), which has the lowest rates on the market.

3. In the first quarter of this year, the regulation and control of pig production capacity achieved remarkable results, falling back to the area with reasonable production capacity regulation. The recent fluctuation of pig price is more due to the adjustment of supply rhythm and the change of enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Judging from the price guidelines given by the current futures forward contracts, the market has a good expectation for the future pig price. Considering that the current round of production capacity has been eliminated for 14 months, with a cumulative removal range of more than 10%, a long time and a large extent, superimposed by the factors of the peak consumption season in the second half of the year to stimulate demand, pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. ETF (159865) can be cultured in bargain-hunting layout.

Today, A-share high shock, encouraged by the Photovoltaic Association industry merger and reorganization, smooth market exit mechanism and other news, photovoltaic industry chain volume rose sharply. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.Mummysgold.02%, up 0% on the Shenzhen Composite Index.Mummysgold.12%, the gem index rose 0.88%, and the total turnover of the two cities was 831.2 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day. From the disk point of view, the photovoltaic plate led the rise, the real estate plate remained active throughout the day, gold, non-ferrous and other plates continued to pullback.

Today, the new energy plate rebounded strongly, the photovoltaic plate led the rise, and the bottom of the related product photovoltaic 50ETF (159864) rebounded by more than 6%. On the news side, the photovoltaic industry association held a symposium on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, which encouraged the merger and reorganization of the photovoltaic industry and unblocked the market exit mechanism. The stock market responded well and rebounded sharply. However, in the long run, it will take time to clear the domestic capacity of the photovoltaic industry, overseas investigations and lawsuits may also affect the share to further expand, the need to lengthen the expected cycle of investment returns.

From a fundamental point of view, the profit of the photovoltaic sector improved month-on-month in the first quarter of 2024, achieving a net profit of 7.1 billion yuan, down 83% from the same period last year, and an increase of 411% from the previous quarter. There have been signs of improvement, and capital expenditure has reached a downward inflection point. 2023Q4 asset impairment concentrated release, N-type instead of P-type trend is clear, photovoltaic enterprises are expected to be light. The price of the industrial chain has fallen irrationally, from silicon materials to components are in a state of loss, and it is expected that there is limited room for further price decline. In addition, Yellen visited China to expressMummysgoldConcerns about domestic photovoltaic capacity have triggered market concerns about rising trade barriers in the United States.

The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have improved in 2024. On the demand side, the global photovoltaic installed 540GW is expected to be about 2024, an increase of about 30% over the same period last year. The bright spot is in the domestic and non-European and American overseas markets, and the European inventory will return to normal growth after destocking. On the supply side, although the annualized capacity of each link in 2024 is relatively sufficient, considering the delay in production (market-oriented self-regulation + financing tightening) + delay in reaching production (slow climbing of new entrants), the actual supply and demand is expected to be better than expected in the current period. and technical route diversification + capacity layout globalization, the supply side to avoid homogeneous competition.

At the profit end, the profit on the manufacturing side has reached the bottom, taking into account the high profitability of the US market and the operating rate differentiation and dilution platform costs, the integrated leading profit level is expected to be better than expected. Rhythmically, the clearance of backward production capacity is accelerating, but the profit inflection point is not clear. With the arrival of the peak demand season, it is expected that the maximum time of supply and demand pressure has passed, and the profit level of the industrial chain has passed the stress test.

Although favorable factors are accumulating and fundamentals are improving, industry associations encourage mergers and restructuring. However, China's photovoltaic capacity accounts for about 80% of the world's photovoltaic capacity in 2023, which can meet the global carbon peak requirements in 2030. Therefore, the current pattern of domestic supply exceeding demand will continue for a long time, overseas encounter double opposition, some countries are also increasing the capital expenditure of the photovoltaic industry, which may affect the speed of domestic capacity clearance. Unless with the progress of technology, the efficiency of photoelectric conversion is greatly improved, which may change the current pattern. Therefore, although the valuation quantile of the underlying index of photovoltaic 50ETF (159864) is lower, it may be necessary to lengthen the expected cycle in order to achieve a return.

Recently, A shares fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760) closing up 0.18%, attracting a net inflow of more than 480 million yuan in the past 10 days.

The "medium special valuation" content of the Shanghai Composite Index is even higher. Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overweight is obvious in banking, public utilities, transportation, petrochemical, coal and other industries with low valuation and high dividend. In recent years, driven by the special valuation market, the Shanghai Composite Index has also outperformed it.MummysgoldHis mainstream wide base index.

It is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index ETF adopts the sampling replication strategy and achieves some excess returns on the basis of achieving the tracking target. According to Wind, the Shanghai Composite Index ETF gained 6.15% in the past three years as of March 31, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose-11.64% over the same period, with an excess return of 17.79%.

In the context of the current weak economic recovery, the new "National Nine articles" strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, which is expected to boost the market style towards high dividend sectors in the short term. Superimposed at the beginning of the year, the relevant departments proposed to include market value management in the assessment of the heads of central enterprises, the medium-and long-term allocation value of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is outstanding, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a comparative advantage. Interested partners can follow the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (510760), which has the lowest rates on the market.

After rising in a row a few days ago, the aquaculture sector ushered in a correction today. Aquaculture ETF (159865) closed down 0.29%, but the 14.55% increase in the past 20 days still makes it one of the strongest sectors in the market recently.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and villages show that the sales price of live pigs continues to rise. From the April sales data disclosed by major listed pig enterprises one after another, the profitability of pig enterprises has been repaired, and the industry is returning to the breeding break-even line. In the first quarter of this year, the regulation and control of pig production capacity has achieved remarkable results. by the end of March this year, the national stock of breeding sows was 39.92 million, a month-on-month decline of 1.2%, falling back to areas with reasonable production capacity control.

The price of live pigs this week was 15.19 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The recent fluctuations in pig prices are more caused by the adjustment of supply rhythm and the change in enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Before May Day, there was high enthusiasm for the slaughter, and retail investors and secondary fattening sales were large. After the holidays, they entered the market again to make up the hurdles, which formed support for pig prices. Judging from the price guidance given by current futures forward contracts, the market has good expectations for pig prices in the future, and secondary fattening may gradually increase in the near future.

From the supply side, affected by the epidemic outbreak in the fourth quarter of last year and the early first quarter of this year, the number of fattening pigs has marginally decreased, and the phased oversupply situation in the market will gradually improve. Considering that this round of production capacity has continued to be de-converted for 14 months, with a cumulative de-conversion rate of more than 10%. The time is long and the de-conversion rate is large. Coupled with the peak consumption season in the second half of the year, pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. You can arrange a farming ETF (159865) on a bargain.