pennreelsslammer3|建筑工程业行业：数据库前瞻性预判到1季度实物工作量业绩弱

Guide to this report: the negative growth in the first quarter of Construction is lower than market expectations.Pennreelsslammer3Pennreelsslammer3We build the "financial real estate and other construction industry chain panoramic database" forward-looking prediction of negative performance, high-frequency tracking of physical workload effect is obvious. Second-quarter results are expected to improve on a month-on-month basis. Abstract: the performance of the construction industry increased negatively in the first quarter, which was lower than the market expectation. (1) the net profit of the construction industry in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 2.Pennreelsslammer3The growth rate was lower than that in the same period of 2023 and the previous quarter, and net profit in the first and fourth quarters of 2023 increased by 11.8% and 47.9%, respectively. (2) the net profit of the fine molecular industry in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year, the garden decreased by 33%, the steel structure by 18%, design consulting by 17%, decoration by 16%, housing construction by 2%, and international projects increased by 9%. (3) the net profit of leading companies in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, China Metallurgical Corporation dropped by 21%, China Railway by 5%, Shandong Road and Bridge by 3%, Sichuan Road and Bridge by 36%, Anhui Construction by 11%, General Design Institute by 9% and Shencheng Jiao by 13%. (4) the growth rate of net profit in the first quarter fell by the same percentage point, with China Railway Construction 3, China Power Construction 8, China Chemical 4, Tunnel shares 48, Honglu Steel structure 19, Sinopec International 2 and Sinosteel International 58 percentage points. We build the "financial real estate and other construction industry chain panoramic database" forward-looking forecast to negative performance, high-frequency tracking of physical workload effect is obvious. (1) the weekly high-frequency data at the macro level of the database show that the issuance and net financing of special bonds and urban investment bonds decreased in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. (2) weekly high-frequency data at the industry level of the database show that revenue from sales and land sales in the real estate industry declined in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. (3) the weekly high-frequency data at the level of database industry chain show that the rebar inventory in the first quarter is higher than that in the same period last year, and the cement shipping rate and excavator utilization hours are lower than those in the same period last year. (4) monthly data at the micro level of the database show that property sales of China Railway / China Railway Construction / China Construction have declined compared with the same period last year. The first quarter performance of China Communications and Construction / China Energy Construction, North International, China Communications Design and other high growthPennreelsslammer3, better than the market expected. (1) net profit in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period last year, China Communications and Construction increased by 10% year-on-year by 0.4 percentage points, and China Construction increased by 32% by 14 percentage points year-on-year. (2) the net profit in the first quarter can still achieve high growth on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, Yaxiang Integration increased by 258%, Northern International increased by 36%, and China Communications Design increased by 42%. (3) monthly high-frequency data from the database show that investment in manufacturing is better than that in infrastructure and real estate. In the first quarter, China's newly signed contracts increased by 22% and profits increased by 10%. There has been a high increase in power grid investment in infrastructure, and China's first-quarter profits have increased by 32% and newly signed by 24%. China Construction's profit growth fell by 13 percentage points in the first quarter. We expect second-quarter results to improve on a month-on-month basis, with low institutional configuration, low valuation and low callback as an opportunity to increase holdings. (1) the base becomes lower, and the net profit growth rate of Q1-3 in 2023 is 12%,-2% and-5%, respectively. 2024 in the first quarter, the Spring Festival evening will affect the settlement in the first quarter, and the settlement will increase in the peak season in the second quarter. (2) the national policy statement will speed up the issuance of government bonds in the second quarter, and if the funds are available in the second quarter, it will drive the increase in the performance settlement of physical workload. (3) the allocation of institutional heavy positions at the end of the first quarter of construction was 0.49% (2.3% standard), down 0.09% from the end of last year and 0.36% from the end of the first quarter of last year. (4) the average PB0.62 and average 2024PE5.9 of the eight central enterprises are all at the bottom of history. (5) recommend market capitalization management of state-owned enterprises such as China Jiajian, China Railway of non-ferrous mineral resources, tunnel shares of high dividend assets, low-altitude economy China Construction Group, new energy China Energy Construction, etc. Risk tips: macroeconomic policy risks, infrastructure investment is lower than expected, and so on. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.